Q3 was a crypto bull quarter. Bitcoin ran from $58,604 at the open of July to $83,607 by the close of September, a +42.7% move. The S&P 500 drifted up 2.7%. Simply holding Bitcoin was the trade of the quarter, and anyone who did got paid handsomely.
Vela finished up +4.6%. Ahead of the S&P. Well short of Bitcoin.
One trade carried the quarter. On August 3 the engine went long BTC at $63,879. It held through 18 days of a steady march higher and closed on a trailing stop at $77,846: +21.9%, worth $27.93 of the $9.16 total P&L. Everything else combined was a slight drag.
The honest read: trend-following strategies catch moves after they start, and in a straight-up quarter like this one, Vela's two-way engine traded in and out when a passive buyer simply held. The engine flipped short on BTC twice during the quarter (both losses), traded four BTC positions total, and only the one aligned with the big move. Longs on equities ran into choppy earnings action: DELL, MU, and AMZN each gave back more than they took, dragging the equities class to −11.8% on $200 of average deployed capital. Commodities and indices came out roughly flat. Only crypto, dominated by that one BTC trade, pulled hard enough to offset it.
Three things are now in motion based on what Q3 showed. First, hold time: trailing stops closed 36 of 86 trades at a 100% hit rate, confirming they work, but we want to let the biggest moves run further before pulling back. Second, trend regime: the engine should lean harder into the prevailing direction and trade fewer, bigger positions when a market is trending cleanly. Third, close-reason attribution: the signal-review infrastructure shipped in Q3 now tags every losing exit with a loss category, so we can see exactly which setups are failing and why.
Thank you for being here. Every subscriber makes it possible for us to keep sharpening the engine, and we don't take that lightly. The engine held its ground this quarter when it needed to catch a bigger piece. That's what Q4 is squarely focused on: converting more of the clean trend quarters into clean returns.
Q4 report publishes in the first week of January.
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Q4 performance report publishes January 1, 2027. Every trade, every asset, no omissions. To follow Vela: getvela.xyz · X: @vela_HQ
Vela watches price action, volume, and trend strength around the clock. When the evidence lines up, trend, strength, and market conditions all pointing the same direction, a signal fires. Green means the engine sees a long opportunity. Red means short. Gray means no clear edge, so no trade.
Signals are generated across multiple timeframes: a 4-hour primary signal and a 30-minute scanner. A market regime filter suppresses entries when broader conditions are unfavorable.
When a signal fires, Vela opens a position automatically on Premium, or sends you an alert to approve first on Standard. Position size is a percentage of your account balance. All trades run on Hyperliquid: your funds stay in your own wallet at all times, not held by Vela. Leverage defaults to 1x and can be adjusted in account settings.
Every position has a pre-defined exit. Four things can close a trade:
Trading return is computed as total realized USD P&L divided by average deployed capital across the quarter. Average capital is the time-weighted average of USDC balance in the tracked wallet, accounting for deposits.
Win rate counts trades that closed with positive P&L. Benchmark returns (BTC, S&P 500) are computed from Hyperliquid daily candles at July 1 open and September 30 close. The report reflects one tracked full-auto Premium account with default settings. Individual results vary based on account balance, position sizing, and market entry timing.
In Q1 2026, Vela tracked BTC, ETH, SOL, and HYPE. Q2 expanded coverage to 27 assets across crypto, equities, commodities, and indices. Q3 kept the same universe and added three new US stock perps (HOOD, ORCL, SMSN) as HL enabled them.
Not Financial Advice. This report is published for informational and transparency purposes only. Nothing in this report constitutes financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other advice. Vela and VelaFi Inc. are not registered investment advisers, brokers, or financial planners. You should consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.
Past Performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The trading results described in this report reflect actual live trades executed on the Hyperliquid decentralized exchange during the period July 1 – September 30, 2026, on one tracked full-auto Premium account. Individual user results vary based on account balance, position sizing, subscription tier, and market timing. Small-account effects (fee ratios, minimum position sizes, funding rate impact) may differ meaningfully at larger account balances.
Benchmarks. BTC and S&P 500 benchmark returns are computed from Hyperliquid daily candle data at July 1, 2026 open and September 30, 2026 close. These are point-to-point returns and do not reflect volatility, drawdowns, or any transaction costs associated with buying and holding the underlying assets.
Risk of Loss. Trading perpetual futures involves substantial risk of loss, including the possible loss of all invested capital. Cryptocurrency and equity markets are volatile. Prices can move rapidly against open positions. You should only trade with funds you can afford to lose entirely.
No Guarantee. Vela's signal engine uses algorithmic analysis of price, volume, and momentum indicators. Signals may be wrong. No algorithm eliminates the possibility of loss. Market conditions can change in ways that cause even high-probability setups to fail.
Custody. Vela does not hold user funds. All capital remains in user-controlled wallets on the Hyperliquid protocol. Vela has no ability to withdraw, transfer, or access user funds.
Regulatory Notice. Vela's services may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with the laws of their local jurisdiction before using Vela's platform.
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